Wednesday, July 1, 2009

Betting Strategies

Here is a short description of the two betting website strategies and money management
Normal Betting:
You pick a team you believe in, without having the odds in your consideration. You concentrate on current form, missing keyplayers, special conditions and your own impressions.
Value Betting:
When you do Value Betting, you compare the odds from the bookmakers with percentage-estimations. Estimations can be created in many ways, for instance using a computerprogram such as Sortilegus. Playing matches with a high value will in the long run generate a profit.
The formula for valuebet is: Odds x Estimation >100
A result higher than 100 makes a valuebet. E.g. if the result is 115, you will earn a 15 %-profit in the long run.
Money Management:
In Money Management you concentrate on odds and stakes. In some types of Money Management, you increase one or both of these in order to win back what you have lost in the previous bets. A classic example is the Casino-method. There are also other kinds of strategies, e.g. 'Kelly´s Criteria', which is designed to maximize the growth of your bankroll (e.g. a bettingfund) over the long term. The amount depends on odds and estimations. For more specific information about the different strategies, look here.

Saturday, July 5, 2008

Normal Betting vs. Value Betting

Normal Betting vs. Value Betting

Which of the two betting philosophies is the right one? The answer is both of them. Actually, one can say that "brain betting" is by far the most complicated strategy, which sounds strange considering the fact that you have to calculate percentage estimations for each outcome in a game to use value betting. However, betters, who don't use estimations, ALWAYS try to pick the winner, meaning that they never have an excuse should their bets prove to be wrong. When doing value betting, on the other hand, your estimations show that both sides had a reasonable chance of winning, i.e. when a team with an estimated winning percentage of for instance 10% wins, you can say that they won't repeat that performance in the next nine matches. Only in the long run, the accuracy of the estimations can be found.

It is often said that betting on the favourites is a sure way to lose. This is nonsense. Barcelona at 1.20 may not represent value rated 80% favourites, but if they win, they win. They win 100%, not 80. It is true though, that if you place 10 points on the favourites in every match, you will end up with considerable losses.

To illustrate why normal betting is a more advanced method, we have made the following example: Using both strategies, Everton @ odds 2.00 looks like a good bet. The reason for betting on Everton when doing value betting is that Everton should be able to win this match every second time. If Everton fail to win, then next time...A "normal better" would say that Everton is a good bet rather than Everton @ odds 2, simply because Everton is going to win...If Everton loses, he was wrong, not unlucky.